Guest contribution by Willis Eschenbach
Well, the endless curiosity of my monkey mind led me to some interesting datasets over at KNMI. It is a large number of meteorological measurements that have been carried out in Holland since 1964. I noticed that they have global solar radiation data, so I plotted that to see the variations. I overlaid it with the CEEMD residual that remains after the various cyclic fluctuations have been removed. The CEEMD residual shows the overall trend of the data. (See my Noise-Assisted Data Analysis post for more information on CEEMD analysis.)
Figure 1. Monthly Dutch solar radiation, January 1964 – January 2023
That was interesting. Solar energy hovered around the same level for about five years, then declined for about twenty years, and then rose again.
Next, I looked at the Dutch surface temperature in the same way.
Figure 2. Dutch monthly surface temperature, January 1964 – January 2023
Fig. 2 shows a general slow rise in temperature over the period under consideration.
Well, my choice of these two sets of data was not accidental. Remember that the central paradigm of modern climate science is the very simplistic view that temperature changes are a linear function of changes in downwelling radiation.
I think that’s nonsense. I don’t know of any other complex chaotic system with such a simple input/output relationship…but that’s what mainstream climate science claims. I discuss this idea in my post entitled The Cold Equations.
So… here is the relationship between solar radiation and temperature in Holland. In both cases I used the CEEMD residuals.
Figure 3. Dutch monthly surface temperature, January 1964 – January 2023
Hmmm…not exactly a linear relationship. It starts with falling solar radiation and rising temperature… and then this relationship reverses.
Hm actually.
Well, that’s just solar radiation. Unfortunately, the KNMI data does not include longwave radiation directed downwards. However, we have this data from the CERES dataset for the period from March 2000 to February 2022. During this period, longwave downward radiation in Holland decreased by -5.0 W/m2.
And this in turn gives a total sensitivity (longwave + shortwave) for this shorter period of… 0.1°C per W/m2… see figure.
Can we draw overarching global conclusions from this analysis? No way. It’s just a small country…however, it shows that over the last ~60 years there are many more things affecting the temperature in Holland than just downhill radiation.
My best for everyone.
w.
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